foresight : Programme Description 2002

this document provides the following information on the Foresight Programme:

introduction

foresight is a national capacity to think ahead. The programme was launched in 1994 and has been revised regularly to ensure that it is positioned to meet new challenges.

aims and Objectives

the aim is to increase UK exploitation of science. The Foresight programme either identifies potential opportunities for the economy or society from new science and technologies, or it considers how future science and technologies could address key future challenges for society.

approach

foresight brings together key people, knowledge and ideas to look beyond normal planning horizons to identify potential opportunities from new science and technologies and actions to help realise those opportunities.

in order to allow new issues to be targeted and picked up quickly, a fluid, rolling programme of projects was announced in April 2002 starting with two projects covering cognitive systems and flood and coastal defence. The starting point for a project is either a key issue where science holds the promise of solutions (e.g. flood and coastal defence); or an area of cutting edge science where the potential applications and technologies have yet to be considered and/or articulated more broadly (e.g. cognitive systems).

the process of selecting Foresight projects is important if we are to have the best possible chance of identifying the most promising new developments. That is why we have undertaken wide consultation with business, the science base, government departments, devolved administrations and others, to identify topics for future Foresight projects.

a short list of projects will be agreed early in 2003, to supplement those projects already running. Foresight needs to be able to move fast to respond to new challenges and opportunities. We expect the list of projects generated through the consultation to be supplemented from time to time as new ideas emerge.

in order to proceed with a Foresight project, it will be necessary to secure the support and endorsement of the relevant government department that has the policy lead for the subject(s) covered.

each project will be led at a senior level by either the Chief Scientific Officer, the Director General of the Research Councils, or the Director General of (DTI) Innovation Group. Once a project has been selected, an initial seminar will usually be organised to include expert speakers from related fields. This will inform participants about each other's work, and enable the scope and objectives of the project to be refined.

each project will be resourced to review research literature and undertake horizon scanning, taking into account relevant social and economic trends. Participants will be supported by in house teams, including individuals with relevant research experience, able to help pull together information and make the right cross-connections. A network of experts and stakeholders will also work closely with the Foresight project teams.

futures techniques will be used to ensure current trends and currently known technologies are not simply projected forward. This could involve using tools such as scenario planning, but the methods and extent of this element of the work will vary, depending on what the project is covering. The aim is not to 'predict' the future; the analysis of options will recognise different developments are possible, depending on what action is taken in the interim.

outputs

all Foresight projects should deliver:

  • thorough and up-to-date information and analysis of recent developments in relevant science and technology, including an international perspective, and forecasts of what the next developments might be;
  • visions of the future, reflecting the potential impact of science and technology, and of forecast social and economic trends, ie what success will look like;
  • recommendations for action, by research funders, business, Government or others, to make the most of the potential of science and technology;
  • networks of people who recognise the importance of the issues addressed by the project, and are keen to take the recommendations forward.
  • other outputs will vary, according to the nature of the project.

given the long term nature of the programme, we expect that recommendations will most often focus on research and development, though they may also, as in previous rounds, tackle issues such as Government regulation, skills and training, where these affect the scope for science and technology to bring economic and social benefits.

a key test of the quality of outputs from the programme is that they inform and influence the decisions of research funders, including business, Government departments, and charities, as well as the directed programmes of the Research Councils and the overall strategy of the Director General of the Research Councils. UK Foresight will not produce a national research strategy, or direct the priorities of Research Councils or the Government Office for Science. It has never done so, though it has had, and will continue to have, substantial influence.

criteria

the criteria for choosing topics to be taken forward through a Foresight project includes:

  • significant current developments in science or technology, with the potential to bring radical change, crossing the boundaries of established disciplines;
  • important challenges for society or the economy, to which science and technology have the potential to make a substantial contribution;
  • scope to put together a group of people, with an interest in exploring the science and technology and ways to make it useful;
  • there should be at least one sponsor from one of the interested communities (Government, research funders, business, etc) who agrees that the project should happen and who has the power to make things happen in the light of the Foresight report;
  • at least one of the interested communities should be prepared to commit resources to the project;
  • the project should add value to existing activities and initiatives - with the scope to deliver outputs which would not otherwise be achieved.

the Previous Foresight Round

although the focus of the programme has changed, there is much positive work that has come out of the previous round of Foresight. This will not be lost.

the work of the former Foresight Panels is being pursued in a number of different ways. Information on the work of each panel can be found on this website.