The Foresight Programme

Introduction

Foresight, together with the Horizon Scanning Centre, produce challenging visions of the future to ensure effective strategies now, by providing a core of excellence in science based futures expertise and access to leaders in government, science and business.

Aims

Our aim is to improve the relative performance of UK science and engineering and its use by government and society. To achieve this the Foresight programme identifies potential opportunities for the economy or society from new science and technologies, or considers how future science and technologies could address key future challenges for society.

This work is supported by the Horizon Scanning Centre, whose aims are to inform decision-making both within government departments and across departments; to support horizon scanning being carried out by others inside and outside government; and, spot the implications of emerging science and technology and enable others to act on them.

Approach

Foresight brings together key people, knowledge and ideas to look beyond normal planning horizons to identify potential opportunities from new science and technologies and actions to help realise those opportunities.

To achieve this we run a rolling programme of between three and four projects. A project is either a key issue where science can offer possible solutions (e.g. flood and coastal defence), or an area of cutting edge science where the potential applications and technologies have yet to be considered or articulated more broadly (e.g. cognitive systems).

Topics for future Foresight projects are identified through a range of consultative processes. The Horizon Scanning Centre ran two strategic scans during 2005, the results of which will feed directly into project selection process. Sir David King will also be hosting a second brainstorming meeting of senior academics to identify possible topics; the first produced a list of topics, a number of which formed the basis of most of the projects that Foresight has run since 2002. The suggested list of topics is then posted on the Foresight website for comments, and in parallel the Foresight team will be consulting business, the science base, government departments, and devolved administrations to seek their views.

For a topic to be shortlisted as a possible project the Foresight team has to satisfy themselves through the results of the consultation that the following criteria have been met:

  • Be future-oriented, and based upon science and technology
  • Not duplicate work taking place elsewhere
  • Have action-oriented outcomes that can be influenced by the work of the project
  • Have buy-in and commitment from all key stakeholders; and
  • Involve cross-disciplinary science and technology, and cross-Departmental policy issues.

If a topic fulfils these criteria it is included on the short list for future projects. For a topic to become a project the support and endorsement of the government department with the policy lead for the subject(s) covered is sought together with the agreement of a minister from that department to lead the project. However, this remains within the constraints of Foresight only being able to run four projects, at the most, at any one time.

A high-level stakeholder group, comprising senior decision-makers and budget-holders from relevant Departments, Research Councils and other organisations, oversees all projects. The group is chaired by the Minister from the lead Department, and is responsible for agreeing an action plan, which is usually published alongside the findings and reports of the project. Each project is led at a senior level by the Chief Scientific Adviser. Projects usually last between 12 and 18 months.

Each project reviews research literature and undertakes horizon scanning, taking into account relevant social and economic trends. Participants are supported by in-house teams, including individuals with relevant research experience, able to help pull together information and make the right cross-connections. A network of experts and stakeholders also work closely with the Foresight project teams.

Futures techniques are used to ensure current trends and currently known technologies are not simply projected forward. This can involve using tools such as scenario planning, but the methods and extent of this element of the work varies depending on what the project is covering. A Foresight project does not predict the future, but on the basis of a thorough understanding and analysis of the subject in its broadest perspective and an awareness of different ways the future may develop identifies a range of possible outcomes. The purpose of this is to assist decision makers now on how their decisions might affect the future, and what decisions they need to consider in the light of the possible impact the identified outcome may have on society in the future.

Outputs

As identified above the nature of a Foresight project can vary considerably, but in general, all projects are likely to produce:

  • State of the art reviews of the science in a form intelligible beyond the discipline
  • Visions of the future underpinned by an understanding of the key drivers
  • Consequential actions owned by those capable of implementing them
  • Enduring networks to continue dialogue as the issues evolve
  • Innovation in forms of engagement and communication
All Foresight projects should deliver:
  • thorough, up-to-date information and analysis of recent developments in relevant science and technology, including an international perspective, and forecasts of what the next developments might be;
  • visions of the future, reflecting the potential impact of science and technology, and of forecast social and economic trends, i.e. what success will look like;
  • recommendations for action, by research funders, business, Government or others, to make the most of the potential of science and technology;
  • networks of people who recognise the importance of the issues addressed by the project, and are keen to take the recommendations forward.

Other outputs vary, according to the nature of the project.

A key test of the quality of outputs from the programme is that they inform and influence policy and the decisions of research funders, including business, Government departments, and charities, as well as the directed programmes of the Research Councils and the overall strategy of the Director General of the Research Councils. UK Foresight does not produce a national research strategy, or direct the priorities of Research Councils or the Government Office for Science. It has never done so, though it has had, and will continue to have, substantial influence.