Selecting Topics for New Foresight Projects
The UK Foresight Programme is currently developing a set of new topic ideas, which may develop into Foresight projects over the next two to three years. This process will take place over the period between now and the middle of 2006. We aim to end with a short list of about five new topics, approved by Ministers across Government, from which it is likely that the next set of Foresight projects will be drawn, and commenced when resources are available.
There will be a range of inputs to this process, giving interested parties several opportunities to contribute. Many have already participated through two of our current activities. First, involvement in the two strategic horizon scans that the GO-Science Horizon Scanning Centre have been running. The results of these scans will feed directly into project selection, as well as providing stimulus for the other activities described here. Second, during the independent evaluation of the programme of Foresight projects from 2002-5 that reported to GO-Science in December 2005, the evaluators carried out a programme of interviews with participants and stakeholders in Foresight. The evaluation report has outlined the ideas emerging from these interviews that relate to future project selection.
At the start of the current round of Foresight in 2002, the Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir David King, hosted a brainstorming meeting of leading academics, which resulted in a set of topics that were taken forward and refined through extensive consultation, into proposals for Foresight projects. Five of these subsequently became projects, which took place between 2003 and 2005. A similar exercise was carried out in March 2006 as part of the new project development process, the results of which are summarised below. We have outlined eleven possible themes for future Foresight projects. These themes are intended as starting points to stimulate reflection and comment.
Before any proposed topic can be presented to Ministers for their approval and launched as a Foresight project, it must satisfy several criteria - projects must:
- look ahead at least 10 years, in areas where outcomes are uncertain. This typically occurs where the future direction of change is rapid, current trends are uncertain or different trends may converge;
- involve science and technology as the main drivers of change or sources of solutions;
- have outcomes that can be influenced, to an extent that is significant for one or more of the economy, society and the environment;
- not duplicate work carried on elsewhere. However, it must build from areas of active research;
- require an inter-disciplinary approach to the science (including social science, and arts and humanities), and bring together groups from academia, business and government. It must not be capable of resolution by a single group;
- command the support of the groups most likely to be able to influence the future; and
- be owned by a lead government department.
We expect to be able to announce the short list of new topics, and more details about the next Foresight projects, later in 2006.
Potential themes for new Foresight projects
This paper describes themes emerging from a brainstorming event hosted by the Chief Scientific Advisor in March. It represents the starting point in the process of drawing up a new shortlist of potential Foresight projects. Its aim is to stimulate thinking and discussion: we expect that some themes will be refined and developed, others may be split or merged, and news ones may emerge.
Inclusion in the list does not mean that the theme, as currently defined, meets the criteria to become a Foresight project. Subject to comments received, OST will scope potential themes in more depth, in order to assess their suitability.
During the event, participants expressed particular interest in seeing Foresight exploit the best possible science in two broad areas: that of lifestyle interventions (drawing on, amongst other disciplines, neuroscience, behavioural and cognitive sciences, recent work on decision-making, perceptions of risk, well-being and happiness) and that of behavioural economics.
However, rather than proposing these as Foresight topics in their own right, participants took the view that it was the application of these areas of learning to defined challenges or opportunities that might have the greatest impact. This thinking is reflected in the presentation of topics below.
Themes in alphabetical order
Ageing society
Examining the challenges and opportunities of longevity, including healthcare, mental health, happiness and wellbeing; social cohesion, household dynamics and family structures; changing patterns of lifestages (family, work, leisure, retirement and learning).
Environments for health
Exploring how our environment affects the health of the individual and society. This might include consideration of the impact of diet, the physical environment and new technology on our health. It would look at how the increasing amount of information in each of these areas could be brought together to try to create an environment conductive to well being
Exploiting the quanta
Building on the UK's expertise in spintronics, quantum computing and quantum cryptography. Addressing issues of research and innovation, working closely with the private sector. Exploring implications for critical national infrastructure, wealth creation, public engagement and regulatory impact.
Intelligent buildings
Combining learning on lifestyle interventions with developments in, amongst other areas, materials science, ergonomics, information and communication technologies and their interfaces. Exploring the opportunities for resilient and self-learning infrastructure and for improving the quality of interactions between people, their physical environments and infrastructure (how they get signals and how it affects their behaviours). This might focus on buildings, or the transformation of existing physical infrastructure. It would complement the earlier Foresight project on Intelligent Infrastructure Systems.
Learning for life
Exploring the latest understandings in early stage childhood development, and linking it to the way in which the brain changes throughout life. Drawing on, amongst others, neuroscience, behavioural and cognitive sciences, work on nutrition and environment. Looking at the implications for education, parenting, skills, health and social cohesion.
Open-source creativity
Exploring the implications for emerging new patterns of collective and individual behaviour, largely enabled by embedded information and communication technologies and the emergence of new generations who have grown up with them. This might include areas such as research and scholarship, innovation in the private and public sectors, intellectual property and its shifting definitions, education and learning (formal and informal). It includes, but is not limited to, thinking about the implications of what is currently characterised as open-source creativity.
Personal environmental impacts
Drawing on learning about both lifestyle interventions and behavioural economics to tackle behavioural change in one or more key areas of challenge for the UK, such as energy consumption, waste, or transport use.
Resilience: managing future shocks
Greater population and economic intensity, together with greater inter-connectedness, may be increasing the fragility of social and economic systems to natural or human-made shocks. Bringing disciplines together to consider the implications for systems for managing risk and increasing resilience.
Resource depletion
Avoiding the pitfalls of past "forecasting", to take an in-depth look at areas of potential natural resource depletion or shortage, possibly focusing on those which might be created by new technologies where they create sudden extra demand. Exploring the market and regulatory regimes shaping finite resource exploitation.
Sustainable energy management
Exploring potential transformational scientific and technological advances that could have significant strategic impact on the future of energy supply, distribution and demand. Examples include: technologies to support the processes underpinning carbon capture and storage; microgeneration; adaptive systems for energy distribution; new approaches to energy storage; and technologies to enhance energy efficiency and demand management. The project could look at the path to the development, implementation and integration of these new technologies and the social and economic implications of their use.
Water management
Drawing on the best understanding of water cycles and technologies for access, use and re-use, together with thinking about lifestyle interventions and behavioural economics. Looking at implications for water supply and demand, conflict, environmental and economic impacts. Might be nationally or internationally oriented.