Foresight Consultation 2002: Selection of New Projects
Introduction
Foresight runs a rolling programme of in-depth science-based strategic futures projects. In April 2002, following a review of the programme, Lord Sainsbury and Professor Sir David King, the Chief Scientific Adviser launched two pilot projects covering Flood and Coastal Defence, and Cognitive Systems. On 10 September 2002, Lord Sainsbury announced the start of a period of consultation and horizon-scanning to select the next projects and to inform further selection rounds.
This report outlines the outcomes of the consultation and research.
Consultation process
Topic list
The starting point for the consultation and research drew on Foresight's science and technology base. During an intensive workshop senior scientists developed a list of 12 potential project topics. Each topic was outlined in broad terms in the consultation paper published on 10 September 2002.
The consultation paper set out the criteria for the selection of Foresight projects. It invited comments on the 12 topics, and invited ideas for further topics not included on the list. From the start the Foresight team received ideas for further topics. These were tested against the selection criteria and some were then included in subsequent discussions and research. In October the two further topics that were receiving most interest were also added to the website.
Criteria
The selection criteria reflect:
- foresight's positioning as a science-based futures programme;
- the need to tackle significant issues and to add value to the best of existing work;
- the strengths and learning identified in previous Foresight programmes, especially the value of creating new cross-disciplinary networks, and the absolute requirement to have the engagement of the players who can action the findings.
Scope of consultation and input
from the start the consultation paper was made available on the web and publicised in the press. This included the initial list of topics and selection criteria.
At the same time, the Foresight team contacted a wide range of organisations and people. Depending on the level of interest and potential engagement with the projects, the nature of the contacts ranged from email notification to presentations and meetings.
Many of the contacts were topic-specific. For each of the topics on the original list, and the two subsequently added, the aim was to consult relevant key influencers in academia, the public sector and business. Some bodies chose to comment exclusively on existing topics. Others to look in addition for new areas where they saw potential value for Foresight work. We received over 100 responses to the consultation paper and had contact with many other individuals and organisations as we researched individual topics.
The Foresight team also carried out desk-based research on each topic, and on futures work and trend analysis more generally. The research included web and press searches to identify key players and reports and a review of EU and other international futures studies.
Findings
During the consultation period the Foresight team aimed to identify the best possible scope for each potential project, the key issues and concerns, key players and work in progress. The broader topics offered a choice of possible scopes, and several of the topics overlapped. As a result some of the topics' scopes were refined.
Cyber Trust and Crime Prevention
- received significant support from a wide range of academics, businesses and government departments;
- seen as complementary to the extensive existing work on Cyber Trust in the context of current or near-market technologies; and
- key themes of interest are around the impact of new technologies for issues such as surveillance, identity and authenticity, and system robustness.
Exploiting the Electromagnetic Spectrum
Quickly emerged as a new topic having significant support from scientists, with potential to enhance UK innovation capacity:
- will consider the whole electromagnetic spectrum, though with less emphasis on the well-studied area of X-rays; and
- will look at new scientific and technological trends as they emerge within disciplines, to seek to identify cross-over and wholly new potential applications.
Topics short-listed for the future
Three other topics were short-listed for the future. These will form the starting point for the selection of the next projects, to be announced in the autumn. However, the Foresight team will continue to note further possible topics. If a new potential project topic meeting the selection criteria emerges, or if the factors affecting the exclusion of one of the other topics in the original consultation change substantially, the topic will be added to the list.
- strong support for a study on the emerging understanding of brain science in relation to addiction and what this might mean for future treatments, provided it was fully complementary to work by the Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs, the Medical Research Council on addiction and work by the National Treatment Agency for Substance Misuse, and had clearly defined objectives relating to crime reduction.
- interest in more general issues about the basis of behaviour and performance, which are likely to be opened up by work on the origins of addiction.
2) Intelligent Infrastructure Systems
- support for work on the implications of the intersection of developments in different sectors such as transport, IT and housing.
- themes emerging: the need to start from a user's perspective, and to take account of existing infrastructure as a constraint and opportunity.
- interest in issues around the challenges and opportunities posed by the use of complex adaptive systems surfaced under this heading, but are being considered under Cyber Trust.
3) Detection and Identification of Infectious Diseases
- this topic originated with the topic called Untreatable Infectious Diseases in the consultation paper.
- there was considerable interest, especially from academics and government, in narrowing the scope to look at the potential for inter-disciplinary exploration of methods of detection and identification, while at the same time broadening the scope - in a different direction - to include animal and plant diseases
- a key issue was the need to consider detection in the context of its implications for decontamination and other responses
Other topics included in the consultation
Of the 12 topics included in the original consultation paper, 9 have been excluded from the shortlist. In some cases the main reason is that there is a significant relevant programme of work being carried out elsewhere. In these cases the Foresight team has passed on its findings, and the issues raised during the consultation, to those carrying out the work. Summaries of the findings are - see summaries of the findings.
In addition, a very wide range of new topics were suggested during the consultation. Where it was not possible to build a clear case that these met the criteria, they were not added to the shortlist. However, some may be considered further in future reviews or incorporated as issues within other projects. The following give a flavour of the types of suggestions received:
- climate and weather control
- methods to defend against near earth objects
- food safety
- skills shortage
- obesity
- complex adaptive systems
- impact of varying retirement age on employment in the UK
- changing role of towns and cities
- reducing poverty in the developing world
- alternative forms of retailing
Next steps and keeping in touch
The new projects
The team leaders have been appointed and work on refining the project scope, structure and timetable, building the teams, expert networks and leadership is beginning. The total project lifespan is expected to be [12-18] months, but will depend in detail on the emerging findings.
Subsequent projects
Depending on the outcomes of the pilot projects, Foresight expects to launch its next new projects later in 2003. That decision will be informed by the consultation findings just concluded.
Anyone wishing to be kept in touch with developments on specific projects or on the programme as a whole should contact us using the "Register Your Interest" button on the website.