PROJECT PROCESS
Scoping workshops
Scoping workshops were held in Autumn 2005 to seek input on the focus for the project and to explore which areas of science would be most relevant. Around 100 experts were involved representing a broad spectrum of specialisations.
A scoping study was written to summarise emerging issues
Review of Futures work
A review of futures work was undertaken, looking at the other work in this area to ensure that our project built on other futures work that has been carried out and is published on the Foresight website.
OUTPUTS
1. Science Reviews
In common with other Foresight projects we identified and commissioned reviews of the science in a broad range of appropriate areas. Most of these were short reviews which summarised the current limits of science and considerd potential future capabilities. We also commissioned a series of extended reviews in specific areas where Foresight could fill a gap in understanding.
2. Systems mapping
The starting point for our analysis of how to respond to the obesity issue was to try and understand the wide range of different factors that influence levels of obesity. In order to do this we took a systems mapping approach to the construction of a qualitative model.
In particular we are sought to:
- Map the multitude of factors influencing obesity taking as broad a perspective as possible (see annex C for illustration of breadth).
- Identify interactions between these factors
- Identify the degree of influence different factors have over levels of obesity (risk factors)
- Use this information to identify points of influence, conflict & intervention and areas for further in depth work
- Make assumptions explicit during the development process
3. Creating the Scenarios
To explore the future of obesity in the UK we constructed a set of scenarios exploring key drivers for change and how these will impact on the obesity system. The systems mapping informed the development of these scenarios.
4. Qualitative modelling
The scenarios and systems mapping work packages came together in a qualitative analysis exploring the potential impact of different response options in each scenario. This work explored the potential impact of different response options in each scenario.
5. Quantitative Modelling
The systems mapping also informed the framework for the development of a quantitative model.
The aims of the model were:
- To provide a quantitative assessment of future levels of obesity based on the project's scenarios
- To provide a demonstrator for the development of a model for long-term strategy planning in this area.