THE FAN CLUB

FUTURES ANALYSTS NETWORK NEWSLETTER

Professor Sir David King launches the FAN Club

The FAN Club, a new forum where those who have an interest in horizon scanning and futures analysis can meet to exchange new ideas, innovative thinking and good practice, held its first meeting on 13 June 2005.

Launching the event, Sir David King, the Government's chief scientific adviser, stressed the importance of bringing people with a diverse range of expertise and viewpoints together to discuss futures issues.

Citing experience from the Government's Foresight programme, Sir David said that the big issues tend to emerge when stakeholders test each others' thinking. He also pointed out the importance of embedding 'the new three Rs' in the testing process:

• Rigour - the willingness to challenge, think critically and test evidence;
• Respect - the ability to understand and appreciate other viewpoints; and
• Responsibility - the ability to act ethically and responsibly within society.

Sir David concluded by confirming the Government's interest in futures work and its importance in setting policy and influencing the future of society.

The Horizon Scanning Centre

THE FAN Club is just one of a number of activities being carried out by the Horizon Scanning Centre (HSC) and Rupert Lewis, Head of the Centre, provided an outline of current activities and initiatives.

HSC defines horizon scanning as "?the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely developments including but not restricted to those at the margins of current thinking and planning?." The purpose of horizon scanning is not to predict the future, but to explore ranges of possible futures in order to challenge and inform strategy. HSC includes the whole of the research base in its definition of science - so economics, social sciences and relevant aspects of arts and humanities are included.

Rupert described the Sigma Scan (or scan of scans) and the Delta Scan (or scan of science and technology), which are intended to provide a central contextual evidence base for Horizon Scanning across Government. The Delta scan is being assembled on an internet-based "wiki" site.

Mapping Current Activity

David Holland-Smith, from dstl, has been working on the HSC's behalf on a map of future thinking techniques across government. He and his team have identified four discrete 'families' of techniques - expert networks, literature analysis, scenario planning and trends analysis - and have started to consider different methods for mapping where and how they are used. The idea behind the map is that it will help people find out more about who is doing what.

The map is in the early stages. Future developments could include using it to identify activities and key contacts and possibly as a portal to access the results of futures studies from a wide range of organisations.

Dominic Davies, also from dstl, has been looking at good practice in horizon scanning based on the pilot work carried out by the HSC with government departments earlier this year. His work suggests that, to be effective, horizon scanning must be an integral element of normal business, not a 'bolt-on' extra, and that to be effective there needs to be a strong commitment by the sponsor to taking the results forward for action at senior level. He also found that

• much of the value in horizon scanning comes from recognising new connections between trends and developments - not just from identifying the trends themselves;
• effective communication of results is critical to successful exploitation of horizon scanning;
• scanning contractors need to develop considerable knowledge of a client's remits, priorities and value systems if they are to undertake effective impact assessments.

Suggestions for Success

The Foresight team has produced a toolkit for strategic futures planning which draws on its experience of running futures projects over the last five years. Andrew Jackson, Deputy Director of Foresight, demonstrated the toolkit and invited participants to use it to try out a specific technique - issues trees. While it is too early to say if the output has helped or hindered Andrew's study(!), it was certainly fun and generated a lively and varied response from those participating.

The toolkit contains information on horizon scanning and on many other useful futures techniques. It is a resource to dip into at various stages and has a simple navigation system enables users to consult it at different levels of detail.

For those interested in a challenge, the toolkit contains a hidden slide. The first member of the FAN club to find it and report it to Andrew will receive a £25 gift voucher for Amazon! More details concerning the toolkit can be found on the web: Toolkit.

Future Meetings

Three further meetings are planned for 2005-06:

• 8 September, 2005
• 24 November, 2005
• 20 February, 2006

The September meeting will include a presentation from Foresight on the Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs project and also, we hope, a series of practical sessions where practitioners can work together on real issues using a range of different futures techniques. We will be emailing details shortly. We are currently planning a software fair for the November meeting to showcase current software for decision support and for generating, capturing and storing complex and extensive scanning data. We also plan to learn about the frontiers of research into knowledge management technology.

Your views?

Over 60 people attended the launch meeting. Many have already sent in comments and thoughts about future meetings and we would welcome more. Please e-mail Alister Wilson (alister.wilson@waverley-consultants.com) with your comments.

To find out more about the FAN Club, or Alister Wilson (alister.wilson@waverley-consultants.com) at Waverley Management Consultants.