FUTURES ANALYSTS’ NETWORK NEWSLETTER: MAY 2008

Introduction

The May 2008 FAN Club – Exploring the future of foreign policy – was held in the Menzies Carlton Hotel, Bournemouth. The meeting, jointly hosted by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO), provided an opportunity for FAN Club members to explore different ways the UK might tackle foreign policy in alternative future scenarios.

Better World, Better Britain

The international community is facing a range of issues - from climate change and financial instability to health pandemics and weapons proliferation, national security and prosperity - that require nations to work together effectively. The FCO has produced a new strategic framework, Better World, Better Britain, that sets out its role in tackling these issues and focuses its effort where it can make the greatest difference.

In the opening presentation of the day, James Kariuki, Head of Policy Planning Staff at the FCO, introduced the framework and its main characteristics:

• a flexible Global Network serving the whole of the British Government;
• four new Policy Goals:
  • Counter terrorism, weapons proliferation and their causes;
  • Promote a low carbon, high growth, global economy;
  • Prevent and resolve conflict; and
  • Develop effective international institutions
• three Essential Services:
  • Support the British economy;
  • Support British nationals abroad; and
  • Support managed migration for Britain.

Better World, Better Britain is the first strategic framework that has explicitly recognised the overall value of the FCO overseas networks as a platform for all UK Government activity and makes an important distinction between policy and service delivery. Crucially, the framework provides clarity about FCO’s role and where it should concentrate its resources.

James explained that futures thinking is now an integral part of strategic policy development, helping policy makers to step beyond short-term thinking and plan ahead in a way which takes account of uncertainties. The elements of futures thinking - assessing possible consequences of actions and decisions, anticipating problems before they occur, considering present implications of possible future events and envisioning desired aspects of future societies – are all key elements of strategic foreign policy. FCO Is benefiting from using futures through better risk management, better policy co-ordination, more effective relationship building and more focussed resource allocation.

One practical example of the impact that futures work can make is the contribution of scenario thinking in the Kosovo strategic review project, where FCO staff defined a number of possible end states and then worked backwards to establish the events needed to get there. The analysis of what went right - and wrong – in the scenario backcasts helped FCO identify potential future opportunities and challenges and informed policy development.

Scenarios for the Future International Environment 2010-2020

NB – The outputs below reflect the discussions, NOT government policy

Following on from James, Alun Rhydderch from Foresight’s Horizon Scanning Centre (HSC) introduced the International Futures Project, which has developed four scenarios of the future international environment (to 2020) for use by UK Government in assessing its strategy and policies.

The scenarios - developed for HSC by the Outsights-Ipsos-MORI partnership - reflect and illustrate key uncertainties identified in areas such as international governance, the world economy, security and the environment. Their purpose is not to predict what the world is going to be like in 2020, but to explore some of the permutations of a wide range of drivers that will determine the shape of our future international environment. By sketching out internally consistent narratives of potential futures, the project’s goal is to provide Government strategists and policymakers with a set of tools to help them consider how policies being developed today might play out in the future.

The two axes used to frame the scenario matrix are Emergence of New Powers and Social-Economic-Political Openness.

The horizontal axis describes the progress of the socio-economic and political world towards openness (an outward-looking world) or towards a more closed world (an inward-looking world). In the outward looking world, economic liberalisation and integration continues; in the inward-looking world barriers are erected and economic liberalisation and integration slows. Cooperation is a stronger feature in the outward-looking world, conflict a stronger feature in the inward-looking one.

The vertical axis examines the political dimension and the pace of the emergence of new powers as a key driver of change in the world’s power structure. At one end, there is very fast emergence of new powers - the rise of the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) – and at the other end, the emergence of new powers is slower, with the BRICs falling short of the more optimistic projections.

The key elements of New Powers, New Alliances are

• There are more ad hoc coalitions and new alliances. There is a general weakening of transatlantic relationships; the UN declines and NATO is less important to US objectives.
• The world is more vulnerable to economic shock and growth is sub-optimal. Higher numbers have lost out in the globalisation process than have gained from it, both within and between countries. Bilateral agreements have proliferated.
• The risk of interstate war has increased and there are significant tensions within regions. This is a closed world that inhibits civil society and encourages crime.

The key elements of A New Multipolarity are

• There has been an erosion of national sovereignty as non-governmental organizations, multinationals and civil society become more important. Effective global fora rule.
• Global economic growth has been even across nations. The BRICs have grown stronger.
• This is a more open world. More open borders and migration have led to the creation of "fluid, decentralised" criminal networks. The threat of nuclear, biological and chemical terrorism has increased.
• The successful emerging economies – like India - are role-models for Africa.

The key elements of The Old Order Remaineth are

• Rules-based multilateralism exists within long standing political architecture. There is more cooperation on terrorism and climate change. The EU and US are close.
• The distribution of growth is patchy. Aid flows have increased, particularly to deal with problems caused by climate change.
• In a world of winners and losers, crime and terrorism remain a challenge. There are big tensions over civil liberties.
• Volatility in the Middle East slows the potential for change.

The key elements of Selfish Incumbents are

• international relations are less rules based and more power based. Calls for a more co-operative approach are limited – and generally ineffective.
• Economic growth is slow and there is risk of depression.
• Lack of social cohesion endangers security. Weapons of mass destruction are widely distributed and there is regularization of some terrorist armies.
• The outlook for developing countries is worsening, especially in the area of human rights. Climate change stress very serious. Those with resources – and especially water – are potentially rich.

Foreign policy in the future

The workshop element of the meeting combined Better World, Better Britain with the International Futures scenarios. Participants split into three groups to explore what the scenarios might mean for how FCO delivers its policy goals and provides its essential services. Groups explored one of three themes from the new strategy framework:

• Promote a low carbon, high growth, global economy;
• Prevent and resolve conflict; and
• Support the British economy.

In each case, participants read the scenarios, identified the opportunities and threats for the UK in them and explored how FCO should deliver its policy objective or essential service. At the end of each discussion, groups used a simple gaming technique – to assume that the world is moving towards the given scenario – to help them make recommendations about what FCO should do to ensure it can deliver the strategy.

To Promote a high growth, low carbon global economy in the different scenarios, FCO should…

To Prevent and resolve conflict in the different scenarios, FCO should…

To Support the British economy in the different scenarios, FCO should…

The workshop discussions illustrated how scenarios can draw out strategic issues and choices. While there are some activities that seem important across a number of scenarios – such as supporting the UK renewables sector to develop its domestic and overseas markets – others, such as whether to concentrate on bilateral or multi lateral relationships, depend on which scenario is unfolding.

In one group at least, three quarters of participants thought the world is moving towards a future that resembles New Powers, New Alliances; intriguingly, however, the group was in less agreement about which scenario more closely resembled today’s situation: New Powers, New Alliances or A New Multipolarity. These different views – common in live scenario workshops – highlight differences of opinion on what the world looks like and how it is developing – key elements of policy and strategy discussions.

Futures in practice: Using scenarios to support countries emerging from conflict

The Stabilisation Unit (previously named the Post Conflict Reconstruction Unit) provides specialist, targeted assistance in countries emerging from violent conflict where the UK is helping to achieve a stable environment that will enable longer term development to take place.

In this presentation, Alastair King-Smith, Head of Integrated Planning and Lessons Learning Group, described how the Unit used scenarios to build shared understanding of the issues and identify priorities for their Sudan Policy.

The scenarios were used as a core input to a two day cross government workshop held in Khartoum and were particularly effective in focussing participants on critical questions. Following the workshop, the Unit used the scenarios to continue stakeholder engagement through

• continuous monitoring of leading indicators to identify which scenario(s) are likely;
• identifying ‘policy packages’ for each scenario;
• defining priorities that work across multiple scenarios; and
• identifying priorities that are relevant in only one or other scenario and ensuring that we retain the option to exercise those if needed

Alastair identified 6 lessons from the Sudan exercise:

• inform individual Departmental planning needs a common cross-government strategy;
• it’s essential to invest in prior analysis; and analysis most useful when linked to a process enabling debate on policy priorities;
• srategy is not a rigid document but a flexible framework for determining policy priorities and setting direction – focus on shared understanding;
• don’t forget the in-country team; support integrated action planning;
• external support can be useful to do this correctly, but make sure the process is owned and managed by civil servants; and
• doing integrated planning with international partners is difficult!

Alastair’s presentation is available here

Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050

Dermot Grimson, Head of UK Government Relations at Shell International presented Shell’s current energy scenarios and how they are used to stimulate wider policy discussions.

The scenarios explore three hard truths that are facing us:

• there is a step-change in Energy Demand Growth:
• supply will struggle to keep pace; and
• environmental stresses are increasing.

There are two scenarios that describe alternative ways the future of energy may develop. In the first scenario – called Scramble –?policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight and greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario – Blueprints – growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide.

Shell are using the scenarios to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term and highlighted the key messages coming from that work:

• the three hard truths are very hard;
• Business “as usual” is not sustainable;
• Technology has a major role to play, but there are no silver bullets;
• Political and regulatory arenas are pivotal;
• Choices made within the next 5 years are critical; and
• Tackling all three hard truths together is essential for a sustainable future

Shell’s view is that the Blueprints’ outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future and, despite the challenges, are optimistic that the outcomes are possible with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally.

Dermot’s presentation is available here.

Exploring the future: Tools for strategic thinking

Steve Bruggenwirth of Tribal Consulting introduced Exploring the future: Tools for strategic thinking, HSC’s updated toolkit. HSC has built the toolkit for futures analysts, policy-makers, strategists and people managing a futures process. The toolkit draws extensively on the approach that HSC takes in its own futures work.

Steve demonstrated the toolkit, running through a number of techniques and highlighting the improved navigation features and the extensive use of case studies and links to external sites. The toolkit is available on-line and on CD ROM and USB key. You can order a copy here.

Mapping Strategic Futures Analysis

David Holland Smith of Dstl presented an updated version of the ‘tube map’ which shows the location and extent of futures thinking across Government Departments

The analysis has been conducted by ascertaining which futures techniques are in practical operation and then positioning each Department on the map according to the similarity in the type of futures methods used. Two departments, for example, that use driver analysis and scenarios are considered to be more similar than two that share only visioning. The tube map effect is simply created by running ‘rails’ between adjacent ‘stations’, much as physical rails are constructed in practice.

The tube-map can be read at three levels:

• Level 1: overview. Some information can be gained from the general layout, the density of lines, number of line crossings, and so on. In particular, the differences between organisations and the strength of the clustering is evident;
• Level 2: cluster membership. Having identified a potentially interesting cluster at level 1, the map then facilitates closer inspection to identify the constituent organisations; and
• Level 3: individual techniques. Using the colour coding, it is straightforward to follow the ‘line’ for a particular technique, both within a cluster and potentially running between clusters.

David’s presentation is available here.

Next meeting

The next meeting of the FAN club will take place on 16 September 2008 at University College London. This will be a joint meeting with DIUS, DCFS and UCL to explore learning in the future.