Welcome to the Foresight Project on Global Environmental Migration (August 2009 - present)
A growing, urbanising global population over the next 50 years will create demand for more food, energy and water. Many of the modern ‘megacities’ are located in coastal areas or river deltas, which are vulnerable to rising water levels. Changes to our climate might also cause degradation of agricultural land, desertification and increased levels of water and food scarcity. A wealthier population will mean greater demand for ever-scarcer food. Alongside this will be the need to mitigate and adapt to future climate change. This threatens to create a ‘perfect storm’ of global events.
A possible impact of environmental change and population growth is an increase in global human migration as people move to cope with a deteriorating environment.
Foresight's latest project will examine how future environmental change could affect human migration in the long-term around the world.
The project will explore:
- The global patterns and impacts of migration over the next 50 years arising from environmental change.
- The challenges that could result from changing migration patterns and how these might be managed.
Foresight will work with leading experts from across the world, to assemble and analyse the latest evidence and research on global environmental migration. In doing so, it will develop our understanding of the challenges posed, and assess how the impacts can be managed.
The project will consider all forms of environmental change, including for example: climate change, pollution and deforestation.
Background
A scoping workshop was held (1 June 2009) and brought together senior academics and policy makers to:
- identify a core project question;
- identify gaps in knowledge and how the project could add value to the existing body of research on global migration;
- expose participants to key sensitivities and issues that the project should address; and
- consider whom the project might eventually seek to influence.
The project’s detailed examination will draw upon a wide range of evidence and analysis drawn primarily from the natural sciences, the social and political sciences, and economics.
The project is sponsored by Home Office and the Department of Energy and Climate Change and will also draw upon the perspectives of national and international stakeholders.
The project’s findings will be published in Autumn 2011.
Project Phases
- Scoping phase – consultation with experts and stakeholders to identify the main issues to consider, and how the project can add greatest value.
- Define the evidence base – collate existing work and commission reviews to fill gaps.
- Synthesis – use futures techniques and the evidence base to explore possible future patterns of migration, the challenges associated with them, and inherent uncertainties. A range of plausible outcomes will be assessed.
- Analysis of ways to address future challenges - identify and test policy options against the future uncertainties; assess their practicalities, costs and potential benefits.
- Launch of project findings in a final report, and a plan to take the work forward within the UK and internationally.
Lead Expert Group
A Lead Expert Group comprising senior scientists and other experts will work with Foresight to ensure that the project is based on cutting-edge evidence, and that its analysis is of the highest technical and scientific standard.
High Level Stakeholder Group
A High Level Stakeholder Group will be convened. This will be chaired by the Ministers from the sponsor departments and will include senior individuals from relevant national and international organisations. It will advise on the strategic direction of the project, and the actions that should result from the work.
For more information about the project please contact foresightweb@bis.gsi.gov.uk