Phase 1: Evidence Collection

Phase 1 of the project is currently starting and will be subject to the advice of the High Level Stakeholder Group. Planned workstreams include:

1. Reviews of drivers of change

These reviews will consider major factors (drivers) affecting the global food and farming system out to 2050. A provisional list of the driver reviews that the project is currently commissioning is as follows: In addition, the project is also planning work to identify “difficult to imagine drivers of change” that may affect the food system. Such drivers might act singly or in combination.

2. Food from marine and freshwater sources

This workstream is currently being planned and will consider both marine and inland activities; examining both capture fisheries and aquaculture.

3. Case studies in specific regions of the world

These will investigate specific issues, using parts of the world as particular exemplars. Local experts will generally be involved in this work. There are currently plans for case studies to address the following questions:

• As a land-rich country that is host to enormous biodiversity, what may be the consequences in Brazil for land use, land management and biodiversity of different scenarios of food availability into the future?
• What are the consequences of China’s substantial investment in agricultural research?
• What are the determinants of consumer demand in India and to what extent do beliefs and values determine demand for food?
• How might a complex multi-national region such as the Nile catchment respond to the future cross-border challenges of climate change, water scarcity and population growth?
• What is the vision for sustainable production in the U.K. in the context of North West Europe out to 2050 and what are the consequences of this vision for policy?
• How might inland fisheries in the Mekong evolve out to 2050?

4. Evidence Reviews

The project is considering commissioning a number of short reviews on the following topics (further topics are likely to be added to this list on the advice of the HLSG):

• Wild food: The evidence for the value of wild foods across different environments and different social groups, and their role in contributing to food security both today and in the future.
• Land acquisitions: This work will review existing evidence on the purchasing of agricultural land in developing countries by sovereign wealth funds and private companies and consider how such land acquisitions might be incentivised to provide long term benefits to both parties and to promote sustainable agricultural development.
• Health, agriculture and development: The consequence for population health of historical patterns of food production and distribution. The review will postulate a “healthy diet for 9 billion people” and consider the implications of delivering this for global food and farming.

5. Modelling and Economics

The project has already convened an international meeting of modellers to review existing global agricultural models. It is now proposed to exercise these models in order to assess vulnerabilities in the global food system, and to assess its resilience.

The project also plans to commission economic analysis of the food system, particularly on the costs and benefits of specific interventions.