Phase 1 Drivers, Scenarios and Work Plan (October 2002 - January 2003)

The work in Phase 1 was undertaken by a small team of experts. The work is based on the expert judgement of this team of experts with input from key stakeholders.

A brief summary of the Phase 1 report is provided below. The full report is available for downloading here.

Aims of Phase 1:

Provides a first cut assessment in order to:

• identify key factors likely to change flood risk on a 30-100 year timescale (the drivers) in terms of both the physical processes of, and human interventions in, the flooding system;
• provide a framework within which the following phases of the project can quantitatively assess changes in future flood risk; and
• outline a work plan for phase 2 of the project.

In summary the following areas are covered in the Phase 1 report, you should refer to the full report for details of the analysis and conclusions.

Logical framework for analysis of drivers and responses

Provides a framework in which the long-term interaction of the flood risk drivers and the flooding system can be considered.

Scenario analysis

Analyses socio-economic and climate change scenarios against which the changing flood risk factors can be considered.

Identification, interpretation and ranking of drivers

• identifies and tentatively ranks the drivers judged to significantly change the state of the flooding system on the 30-100 year timescale.
• the drivers are ranked on a broad spectrum (High-Medium-Low) for the present day and again within the future scenarios. The report notes the uncertainty and speculative nature of the ranking.
• Phase 2 will develop and deepen this analysis further.

Phase 1 Reports