Foresight: Flood and Coastal Defences Project Proposal
1. Introduction
Following the recent review of Foresight, it has been decided to replace the existing 11 Foresight panels with a smaller number of focused projects - around four will be pursued at any one time, each lasting 9-15 months. Initially, two pilots will be used to develop the new model and this document provides the draft terms of reference for one of these: "Flood and Coastal Defence".
2. The Issue
2.1
The Government response to flooding and coastal erosion is essentially about risk management. The policy aims to reduce the risks to people and the developed and natural environment from flooding and coastal erosion through provision of flood warning and flood and coastal defence measures, and discouraging inappropriate development. The response embraces a range of options including warnings, permanent structures, use of natural systems and development control.
2.2
In order to determine a sustainable response the first requirement is to identify and understand the threats. Flooding and coastal erosion are caused by natural processes, though other factors such as land use also have an influence. The second step is to consider the appropriate response to reducing the risks.
2.3
There has been a considerable effort to establish a strategic approach to implementation of the policy aim including establishing risk reduction as a key issue. However there have been a number of recent flooding incidents, and the threat of climate change is likely to exacerbate the occurrence of flooding and coastal erosion. We have identified an opportunity to:
- carry out a comprehensive investigation of potential threats that could impact on flood risk and coastal erosion over a longer timescale (30 to 100 years);
- consider the adequacy of the technology, skills and research base to address those longer-term issues;
- address the wider impacts - social, environmental, economic - in that time-frame; and
- further strengthen the understanding of the issues, and the dialogue between key stakeholders by developing a mutually accepted knowledge base.
2.4
Since flooding and coastal erosion events are related to weather/natural processes, public concern has tended to result in calls for increased public investment. The challenge is to ensure that the UK's long-term investment strategy is founded on a sound science base, that responses truly reduce risk and are sustainable, and that the momentum and direction of policy is maintained even in the face of short-term weather events.
3. Aim
3.1
To produce a long-term vision for the future of flood and coastal defence which takes account of the many uncertainties, but which is nevertheless robust, and which can be used as a basis to inform policy, and its delivery. In common with other Foresight projects, the vision produced should be challenging and independent.
4. Objectives
4.1
There has been a considerable effort to review and develop policy in the light of review, policy research and experience (see Annex A). These will form a starting point in addressing the following objectives:
- identify and assess the relative importance of the threats that need to be taken into account in long term planning on flood and coastal defence;
- construct a set of risk based scenarios taking those factors into account over a 30-100 year timescale and addressing social, economic and environmental issues;
- provide an overview of the responses available and key issues that determine those responses; and
- use this work to inform policy and its delivery.
4.2
In addition, the work will:
- identify implications for the future skills base;
- identify knowledge and technologies that might be transferred from other sectors and inform long term needs for research in this area;
- consider international business opportunities from UK expertise in this area;
- inform the public understanding and debate on flood and coastal defence; and
- promote an effective and enduring dialogue between the science base and stakeholders; and between those with an interest in flood and coastal defence.
5. Method
5.1
The project would have two elements - to create a range of risk-based scenarios and to review possible responses to the threats and implications.
Development of the scenarios
5.2
We would use a combination of literature search, interviews and workshops to gather the information we need to develop scenarios. In addition to looking at threats already identified we would explore possible "wild-card" events. Once we have the information we would work closely with experts (in statistics, socio-economics, environmental science and engineering) to develop a set of risk-based scenarios. We would then have a second phase of workshops to test and develop the scenarios.
Possible responses
5.3
In parallel we would use a similar approach to gather information on scientific developments and international best practice in flood and coastal defence, and explore approaches that we might adopt in the UK in the future. In particular we would seek to facilitate a wide debate on the interaction between environmental habitats, socio-economic development and flood risk management; consider the threat to national infrastructure from flooding; and identify responses with beneficial spin-off - for example, in future rural land use management and its implications for the rural economy. We would explore areas from which other practice and technology could be transferred to flood defence and areas of developing science that might produce fruit in 30 to 100 years time.
5.4
Finally we would have a broad consultation to critically test and explore a range of responses to the scenarios.
Working arrangements
5.5
Project team:
- OST project team (4 people); and
- experts to help us draw together the inputs from external experts and to support the development of the scenarios and risk analysis.
5.6
The Foresight website would be used to engage a wide range of stakeholders throughout the process. This should be a project open to as wide an audience as possible.
5.7
A large number of stakeholders and experts would be engaged in the project throughout its course - through an initial event to scope the project, through a series of ongoing workshops, and through the commissioning of individual packages of work.
5.8
In addition, Defra, as the Department with key stakeholder interest would sponsor the project to:
- act as a sounding board for the project conclusions and recommendations;
- enable key stakeholders to be kept up to date, to help secure action on the project conclusions and recommendations.
6. Key stakeholders
They will include for example:
Policy and executive and departmental stakeholders:
- Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
- Office of Science and Technology
- Department for Transport
- Environment Agency
- Government and the Regions
- Scottish Environmental Protection Agency
- HM Treasury
- National Assembly of Wales
- Rivers Agency (Northern Ireland)
- Scottish Executive
- Northern Ireland Assembly
Further stakeholders
- EPSRC, NERC, ESRC
- Institution of Civil Engineers
- Association of Drainage Authorities
- British National Space Centre
- SNIFFER
- Local Government Association
- Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management
- Welsh Local Government Association
- British Geological Survey
- The Geological Society
- Convention of Scottish Local Authorities
- English Nature, CCW and SNH
- Association of British Insurers
- RSPB
- Council of Mortgage Lenders
- CLA
- Met Office
- NFU
- UKWIR
- Key Business stakeholders
- Forestry Commission
7. Evaluation
7.1
We would produce:
- a project evaluation report, produced in the closing months of the project. This will primarily be used to inform other Foresight projects of lessons learned in this pilot project; and
- an evaluation of the project outcome, performed two years after the end of the project, and assessing the impact of the project.
8. Background
8.1
Flood and coastal defences are vital both to the prosperity of the country, and to the well being of individual citizens. Around ˆ£400 million is spent by Government each year on such defences - these protect, for example, ˆ£200 billion of assets and 1.7 million households in England and Wales. In addition, there are many private interests that own and maintain assets that play a part in wider schemes for flood and coastal management.
8.2
However, planning for the future is especially difficult in this field for two reasons. Firstly, the cost and lifespan of assets (up to 100 years or more) require a very long-term view to be taken. Moreover, that view must be constructed against a background of change, uncertainty and complexity. For example, global warming will have substantial implications for the frequency and intensity of rain and storms, besides raising sea levels. Similarly, changes in land-use, demographic shifts and other socio-economic factors will also play a crucial role, not least since they will fundamentally affect the cost-benefit calculations inherent in future planning and flood-risk calculations.
Annex A:
RECENT FLOOD AND COASTAL DEFENCE REPORTS AND REVIEWS
The following lists key reports on flood and coastal defence which have been recently produced, or which are currently underway.
Completed Reports
(i) 'Lessons Learned' Report - Environment Agency
This report detailed the lessons learned from the 2000 floods. It was produced in partnership with local authorities and emergency services and published in March 2001.
(ii) NAO Report
This report was also published in March 2001. It acknowledged that significant improvements had been achieved since the 1998 floods but highlighted the inter-regional differences on flood risk mapping and the condition of assets. It also identified a number of other areas for priority action.
(iii) ICEs' Technical Approaches Review
The purpose of the review was to ensure that approaches to managing fluvial flood risk are appropriate to the 21st century. It considered among other things the scope for a more holistic approach to flood management. The Commission's recommendations focused on strategic objectives for the future rather than assessing the effectiveness of past practice. The Review reported in November 2001.
(iv) DTLR, 2001. Development and Flood Risk, Planning Policy Guidance Note 25
(v) UKCIP (UK Climate Impacts Programme), 2000. Climate Change: Assessing the Impacts - Identifying the Responses Oxford, Environmental Change Institute.
(vi) DEFRA, June 2001. Shoreline Management Plans - Further guidance for Coast Defence authorities. London, DEFRA, 79pp. http://www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd/policy/smp.html#smp1
(vii) ENVIRONMENT AGENCY, July 2001. Reducing Flood Risk: A Framework for Change.
(viii) DEFRA, 2001. National Appraisal of Assets at Risk of Flooding and Coastal Erosion in England and Wales.
Ongoing Reviews
(i) Flood and Coastal Defence Funding Review
The purpose of this joint DEFRA/HMT review is to examine the funding mechanisms for flood and coastal defence in England and Wales to ensure funds are appropriately sourced and targeted and delivered effectively and efficiently. The Review Steering Group Report was published on 13 February along with a DEFRA consultation document following up the Group's recommendations.
(ii) Financial Management and Planning Review of the Environment Agency
DEFRA's Financial, Management and Policy Review (FMPR) is looking at all aspects of the Agency's work, including the flood defence function. In particular it is looking at how flood defence is sponsored, how this function is organised and managed within the Agency and how funding is channelled from existing sources. The FMPR is also considering how the existing organisational and policy arrangements impact on the effectiveness and efficiency of the Agency in carrying out all its functions. Stage 2 of this Review is underway.
(iii) DTLR's Review of the Bellwin Scheme
The Bellwin Scheme is a means for local authorities to obtain financial assistance in clearing up immediately after a local disaster or emergency. Adaptations were made to the system in October 2000 in recognition of the exceptionally high number of flooding incidents requiring activation of the scheme. A review group has been set up to take full account of the operation of the scheme following the autumn 2000 floods.
(iv) Emergency Planning Review
The legislation and funding of local emergency planning is being reviewed by the Home Office/Cabinet Office, with a view to ensuring that responses to all emergencies, including flooding, are fast and effective.