About
Description
Horizon scanning is a name given to broad processes of futures thinking, but it is also a specific futures tool, as described below.
Horizon scanning is a structured evidence-gathering process. It engages participants by asking them to consider broad sources, typically outside the scope of their expertise. This can be summarised as looking ahead, beyond usual timescales and looking across, beyond usual sources. A STEEP structure, or variation of this, is regularly used.
‘The future is already here – it is just unevenly distributed.’
William Gibson: A well respected and iconic science fiction author. His seminal book, Neuromancer, popularised the word cyberspace as a description of the Internet in the 1990s. The book explored areas including genetic engineering, artificial intelligence, computer hacking, virtual reality and pervasive computing, before they were mainstream concepts. Neuromancer won the Hugo Award, Nebula Award and the Philip K Dick Award – science fiction’s holy trinity.
Individuals use sources to draw insights and create abstracts of the source, then share these with other participants. Horizon scanning lays a platform for further futures activities such as scenarios or roadmaps . It informs strategic priorities and builds strategic capabilities. The insights uncovered can later be themed as key trends, assessed as drivers or used as contextual information within a scenario narrative.
Horizon scanning also demonstrates the collective insights of the group and the differing ways that sources inspire these insights. In this regard, horizon scanning helps to create a good team working environment. It gives consideration to a broad spectrum of information – beyond usual timescales and sources – and draws insights in order to identify future challenges, opportunities and trends. It looks for evidence at the margins of current thinking as well as in more established trends.
Horizon scanning is ideal as a first activity for many futures programmes. It is also useful as a sense-making and interaction tool for an ongoing future-focused team. Horizon scanning works best if people from outside the organisation are included in the team and are encouraged to help bring new perspectives.
The image below illustrates how horizon scanning is useful in spotting weak signals that might be difficult to see otherwise:
The insights discovered by horizon scanning can provide the basis for prioritising research and development programmes, gathering business intelligence, designing organisational scorecard objectives and establishing visions and strategies.
Steps
- Participants are given a focus and time horizon for the exercise.
- Provide sources of information. These can come from the project team, or the individual participants. These should cover a broad external analysis, such as STEEP.
- Individuals review the sources and spot items that cause personal insights on the focus given. These insights and their sources are captured in the form of abstracts.
- Abstracts are discussed and themed to indicate trends over the time horizon concerned.
- The participants agree on how to address the resulting trends and supporting information with further futures analysis.