Methodology

Exercise overview

This approach works well with a large group of participants (more than 20) – more participants encourage greater diversity.

1. Allow introductory time for the participants to familiarise themselves with the focus and time horizon. This should include discussion. Ask them to consider: What is the question trying to address and what criteria are important?
2. Use reading material and other media as sources of insights for the group. This could be Internet access, journals, previous studies and futures investigations. The Horizon Scanning Centre’s Sigma and Delta Science and Technology scans are also useful resources. The material does not need to be ‘on topic’ to be helpful. It is often more valuable in creating insights if the material represents an alternative or fringe perspective.
3. Individuals work alone to review one or more sources and to draw insights. Each is captured in an abstract. Allow an hour or more. An abstract contains the following:
   
   • the source of the article
   • the article’s title
   • the gist of the article
   • the personal insight the article caused (these insights are signals of possible future trends).
   Importantly, an article in a specific area, like technology, may trigger a signal in another area, such as environment.
   
4. Review the collection of abstracts and capture as trends. Analyse these via clustering, ranking or voting. Consider aspects such as the relative impact of each trend on the topic and its likelihood of occurring over the timeframe given.
5. Use the material to determine how to further the topic investigation. Have the participants ask questions of the assembled work? Which trends feel more certain, so that any strategy should take them into account? Which emerging trends need monitoring? Where are the key areas of uncertainty that need further research? Where are the gaps? Are there new, interesting insight directions? What futures tools would be useful next?